What is in the stars for Florida's space program?

Right now, it seems no one really knows where the space program -- and Florida's role in it -- is headed. And that may include President Obama, who hasn't done a good job conveying his plans for the space program, which includes a major rollback of government-sponsored manned spaceflight. Florida senator Bill Nelson levied heavy criticism against the president recently:

"I'm not sure he's got a vision at this point," said Sen. Bill Nelson, who has chastised the White House for "huge mistakes" in rolling out the plan. "They would not listen."

Unless Obama makes some changes, Nelson said, "he's got a hostile Florida."

Obama's plan features some compelling elements, which includes more overall funding but shifts manned flight to the private sector:

Obama's plan would increase NASA funding $6 billion over five years, including funding to modernize Kennedy Space Center. But the proposal calls for more emphasis on science research and less on space travel.

Most notable, the president would cancel the effort to return astronauts to the moon by 2020, which includes the Ares rocket program and the development of the Orion crew capsule.

[...]

The new reliance on the commercial spaceflight industry to take over the duty of ferrying humans back and forth from the space station is particularly significant, experts say.

On Wednesday, a senior White House official told two Florida newspapers (Florida Today and the Orlando Sentinel) that the administration would ask for an additional $6 billion over the next five years to help private companies develop this capability. So far, no commercial company has ever independently launched humans into orbit in its own spacecraft.

"The $6 billion shows that they are very serious about making it a successful and safe program," said Brett Alexander, president of the Commercial Spaceflight Federation, a private industry group. "I think what they're putting in place is bold and exciting. Bringing commercial and private [companies] into it will reinvigorate human spaceflight."

Critics claim that canceling government missions will cost Florida 23,000 jobs:

That sum includes 9,000 "direct" space jobs and -- conservatively speaking -- 14,000 "indirect" jobs at hotels, restaurants, retail stores and others that depend on activity at the space center, said Lisa Rice, Brevard Workforce president. That's a tough number to swallow in a state already reeling from high unemployment.

"Our unemployment rate is going to skyrocket," she warned Thursday during a five-hour Brevard County Commission space workshop.

No pun intended, I'm sure.

Twenty-three thousand jobs lost. That's a huge number to swallow -- especially in a state reeling from high unemployment.

But what about new growth from privatization? Couldn't we expect new growth and jobs as companies take on the role of low-earth-orbit missions? The Times article estimates only about 1,700 new jobs will be created in the private sector.

Because of the elements in play, it will be fascinating to watch this unfold. First Florida's heavy electoral influence will surely affect the final plan. Bullet trains won't be enough to offset the job loss from canceled space flights. Second, it's clear Obama saw the space program as one place he could cut the rate of growth in government spending. If he relents, Obama opens himself to even more criticism from the right. To top it off, mix in the space program's symbolic stature as a source of national innovation and pride, and you have an interesting rue brewing. My guess is the final recipe will include a compromise to help offset Florida's job loss.