Florida Tourism’s Black Swan

This year, Tampa has experienced 19 days where the high temperature was below 60 degrees. Last year at this time? One day.

That may not perfectly fit the definition of a Black Swan event, which author Nassim Nicholas Taleb describes in his book this way:

1. The event is a surprise (to the observer).
2. The event has a major impact.
3. After the fact, the event is rationalized by hindsight, as if it had been expected.

Or, as Taleb summed it up succinctly in the New York Times: Rarity, extreme impact and retrospective. A cold snap of this length is close enough. It’s been a long time since Florida has seen a winter like this, and visitors don’t come here for the downhill skiing.

As the world seemingly becomes more volatile, more inter-connected and more difficult to predict, should people and businesses put more emphasis on planning -- or less? Was it pointless for, say, beachfront hotel owners to put a 2010 plan together given how the season unfolded?

Some would argue yes. Too tough a task, beyond just the planning basics, in the face of so many moving parts, so much randomness.

I think it’s more important than ever before. Alan Gleeson agrees with me and offers some great tips on how to plan for unexpected events.

We can’t predict the what or the when of Black Swan events. But I think we can predict outcomes. A beachfront hotel may see demand fall off 25% or 50% in high-season. Does the business know what to do then? It really doesn't matter if it's cold weather or shark attacks or black plague that hollows out demand. The outcome can be planned for.

Hard to predict the future. Much easier to set contingency plans for potential outcomes. Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to find my coat.