Florida's next real estate meltdown will be commercial

It's debatable whether Florida's housing market is poised for a rebound, with distressed properties making up so many of the residential sales today. But here we go with round two of the crash -- commercial real estate:

The retail vacancy rate in Tampa Bay shopping centers has grown to 10.5 percent or enough empty space to fill International Plaza about 10 times.

[...]

the hotel and shopping center industries are the biggest parts of the commercial real estate industry that dramatically built far ahead of demand during the boom years of easy credit and soaring land prices. Now they are plagued by slack demand, no population growth, fewer tenants, reduced rent and shrinking property values at a time when many of their debts are coming due.

No one knows yet how much of the $3.5 trillion commercial mortgage debt bubble nationally that comes due for refinancing over the next three years is backed by distressed property.

The only thing worse than all the sprawling strip malls that dot Hillsborough County? Empty strip malls.